By Peter Josselyn

East Coast Connected is proud to present the third annual Atlantic Business Summit on Friday, June 18, 2010 in Toronto, where the focus will be on demographics. As a lead up to the Summit and its theme, eastcoastconnected.ca will be presenting perspectives on the key demographic issues facing the Atlantic Provinces. This April, Peter Josselyn reflects on the case of New Brunswick.

The Atlantic Provinces are on the cusp of one of the largest demographic shifts in their history as an aging population retires and the demand for labour increases. This change presents tremendous challenges, health costs being the most pressing. But amidst a looming crisis, there is also opportunity: could labour demands help reverse years of youth outmigration?

Between 1998 and 2008, 240,000—or 14% of the population—left Atlantic Canada to another part of the country in search of employment. And with more education, people are more likely to relocate for work. This has meant that many of the region’s well-educated young people have left. Traditionally, the destination has been Ontario, but that changed in 2006 when Alberta’s mining and oil boom made it the new hotspot.

In early 2008, it seemed much easier to imagine how demographic shifts would impact New Brunswick, particularly as many baby boomers teetered on the edge of retirement. Since then, the effects of the global recession have been seen in the province. These are, generally, not the changes seen in the States (such as house foreclosures). When equity prices plummeted, it made a whole generation think about exactly when they could afford to retire. For some, it meant working for another couple of years until the economy stabilized, or they could recoup their savings losses.

On the flip side, for people eager to return to New Brunswick or to enter the workforce, it meant more waiting. The demand for labour that seemed so clear even two years ago now has some kinks. The value of the Canadian dollar has increased (and even been at parity) with the American greenback. Although this is great for purchasing power, it hurts industries that export good to the US.

New Brunswick’s healthy GDP growth over the past decade of about 3% per year has little to do with population and almost everything to do with worker productivity. It makes one wonder what the region could be doing if it had more people.

With one of the oldest workforces in Canada, New Brunswick will soon face the prospect of massive retirement. For taxpayers, this presents problems such as how to fund the healthcare of an aging population. Taxes will, inevitably, rise, and this is worrisome since newcomers to the region or those who are returning would have a smaller tax burden living elsewhere in Canada.

For people who want to come home, there may be more waiting. Or, as some have discovered, the time to move back is now. Many entrepreneurs are active in New Brunswick, and they have started businesses that allow them to make their own job. The provincial government has various incentives to help young businesspeople, and local economic development agencies often provide the ongoing support that businesses need to thrive. Propel ICT is a unique partnership with a mentor network throughout New Brunswick designed especially to help new IT companies.  This community of resources for start ups—and their many successes— is putting the region on the map. The demographic shift is not happening exactly as predicted, but the effects are evident. Civic-minded groups of young people such as Fusion in Saint John and many organizations associated with the province’s universities are using their influence to create policy that will bring prosperity to the region, and they know that the key is achieving population growth.